No, I'm serious: I really am curious about your predictions for the future. I want to know how you think our world is going to change in the next twenty years, in ways both large and small. In particular, how will our daily lives change?
To put this in perspective: twenty years ago, there was no global internet. There were no cell phones. The first laptop computers had just been introduced. The most powerful personal computer available was less powerful than your current cell phone. Compact discs had been developed, but were still several years from mass production; vinyl records were still the dominant form of musical distribution. Cordless telephones were novel, as were answering machines, and microwave ovens. VCRs were becoming ubiquitous. If you wanted to know a piece of information, you went to the library to find the answer in a book. The Soviet Union and nuclear war seemed like very real threats.
These are just a few of the things that occur to me immediately. There are many other changes that have occurred in the past two decades, changes that sometimes make me feel as if I live in a science-fictional world.
Where will we be in twenty years? I want to hear your predictions. Here are some of mine:
1. There will be blanket wireless internet coverage in every major metropolitan area in the next ten years, possibly within the next five years. Most of this access will be fee-based, but a substantial portion will be shared freely by those who can afford to shoulder the cost.
2. The miniaturization of telephones will continue. Already we see over-the-ear attachments for cell phones. These will gradually become the cell phones themselves, so that everything is contained in the over-the-ear device. (I expect these devices to be de rigeur in five years.)
3. How will these devices operate without a display or a keypad? Voice activation. With its iPod shuffle, Apple has demonstrated that its possible to produce devices that don't possess qualities we expect (in this case, a display for an mp3 player). Voice recognition technology will become more prominent in our daily lives. Remember how the crew of the starship Enterprise always talk to the computer? We're going to start moving that direction. (Think OnStar.)
4. The conflict between transnational corporations and average consumers will reach some sort of crisis. One of the insights I gleaned from reading Henry Adams is that some sort of financial crisis in the 1890s (Adams isn't perfectly clear on the cause) allowed a paradigm shift in this country, taking power from the individual and granting it to the corporations, suddenly creating a dichotomy between industry and the worker. (I'd love to do more reading about this.) This conflict has only intensified over time, and corporations have only grown in strength and arrogance until they've reach their current might. Something has to change, and I think it's going to happen in the next twenty years.
5. A breakthrough in biomedical research — or a series of small advances — will create the beginning of the longevity industry. Human lifespans will increase, particularly among the wealthy who can afford these gerontological treatments. The advances will be small at first, but increase with time. (The societal implications of these increased life spans will be huge.)
I know, I know: these are sort of pansy predictions. Fine. I'll break out the big gun. I mentioned this at book group, but the idea was mostly pooh-poohed, but I think this is really going to happen, and sooner rather than later:
In the next twenty years, human implants are going to become popular, controversial, and commonly used. (Religious groups and civil liberties groups will have fits, of course.)
What kind of implants? Parents will have small chips implanted in their children so that they can be tracked via satellite.
Remember the over-the-ear cell phones I mentioned earlier? Forget those. You'll be able to purchase an implant that allows for cellular communication.
Like your debit card? Great! It'll be common to have a small chip implanted in your hand, a chip containing all of your financial information. When you go to the grocery store, you won't swipe a card and then enter a PIN; you'll simply press your thumb to a pad and the transaction will be processed. Or maybe you won't need to have any sort of check-out line at all. You'll simply go to the store, pick up what you need, and when you walk out special scanners in the doorway will pick up the information for your implant and from the various microchips in the packaging of the products you've purchased. The transaction will be processed automatically.
There will be implants containing medical information, allowing hospitals instant access to patient histories.
Think this sounds like science fiction? It's not. The technology already exists. Companies are merely searching for methods to make it palatable. They needn't worry; the American drive for convenience is going to lead to mass acceptance of these implants in the next twenty years. Only two things stand in the way: marketing and miniaturization. Once the implants have been reduced from 4mm square each to a single 4mm square for all the necessary functions, they'll be more appealing. But the single biggest way to encourage mass adoption of the implants is to create an intensive prolonged marketing campaign touting their advantages.
It's going to happen.
And these implants are only just the beginning. I believe the twenty-first century is going to see an explosion of cybernetic technology. We're not likely to see bionic men and women with super-powered mechanical arms, but I wouldn't be surprised if, in the next twenty years, specific cybernetic enhancements become popular.
Not only will you be able to pay to have an implant to enhance your hearing, your cell phone will go from being an over-the-ear device to an in-the-ear cochlear implant.
Eventually, the implants will tap into the power of the brain itself. There'll be implants that actually access the brain's memory to store information. Imagine a brain implant that, in its firmware, stores a score of different pieces of software, from an address book to a music player. Imagine that the implant only contained the software, but that the data was stored in your brain, like an actual memory. But instead of you having to remember the information, the implant does the work for you. When it stores the number of the business contact you just met, the implant's database remembers to which part of the brain it provided stimulus. When you want to retrieve the information, it provides stimulus to the same region.
Here's the exciting part. Remember my first prediction? The blanket coverage of wireless internet access in major metropolitan areas? Imagine how that could be utilized by a cybernetic implant in your brain. You could have instant access to any piece of information available on the internet. The implant could stimulate your visual cortex, letting you actually see your Google Map or your e-mail or your XXX porn.
Yes, I really do think this stuff is coming, and sooner than you think. I say it'll be here in twenty years, but there's a very real possibility that I'm off by a decade. It may be here in ten.
(As an aside: I'm interested in being reminded of films and books that use human implants as a plot device. I can thing of several, including Logan's Run, Total Recall, Minority Report, and Blade Runner. (Notice how the last three are all ultimately from the mind of one man?) Can you think of others?)
On this day at foldedspace.org
2004 — Thinner (With Pictures) I'm now three months into my weight loss program. Some days I still feel fat; other days I feel skinny. Today I feel skinny.
2003 — Skin Here's something new I haven't tried since moving to the one-long-entry-each-day format: a second entry for today!
— P.J. Peed Sometime later, as Tony bathed Alex, Michael appeared. "P.J. peed," he announced.
2001 — Neurotic Sometimes I think I'm a genius. Sometimes I think I'm a moron. What would truly make me happy?
I think before the implants you'll see increased use of biometrics. Like the flash drives that only respond to YOUR thumbprint which are available now, we'll see more of that. IE, those wireless accounts? You can only log on with your retinal scan, or your thumbprint, to some kiosk maybe bundled with an ATM. You'll have a standing account with your mass-market grocery store to just scan you biometrically to identify you and charge your groceries to that account. Etc.